98th The Academy Awards are upon us. Hollywood’s biggest night is this Sunday (Monday morning in India), when the best actors, technicians and films of 2025 will get their due respect. The Oscars are the culmination of Hollywood’s awards season, which also includes other major awards such as the Golden Globes, Actors Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) and, to a lesser extent, the BAFTAs.
Every year, pundits and publications make Oscar predictions based on their expertise, information, and sometimes just emotion. But what if they could all be aggregated into concrete numbers? HT attempts to look at trends based on past winners (and their track records), how the contenders performed at the other big four – the Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice, as well as the predictions of Hollywood bookmakers.
All this gives us an outlook for each nominee, with some scoring higher than others, allowing us to make predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. The top position in any table gets the maximum chances of winning, followed by positions 2 and 3. For example, if Jessie Buckley leads 9 out of 10 predictions/awards, she gets a 90% chance. And if Jacob Elordi finishes third in five tables, that gives him a 15% chance of winning, and so on. Combined, this gives us the mathematical probability of victory for each contender.
Best Picture: One on One Battle with 60% Chances
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another gets a 6 out of 10 shot at winning Best Picture this year. However, the sinners have closed the gap with a probability of about 30%. Still, most forecasters (except Variety) believe there’s a lot left to do in the final days of awards season.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan with 40% chance
Who would have thought that opera and ballet would cost so much Oscar for Timothée Chalamet? When awards season rolled around, the actor was a favorite for the top acting honor for his performance in Marty Supreme. But now, with the recent controversy and growing noise surrounding the exploits of Michael B. Jordan, the scale has tilted in favor of the Sinners star. Jordan, winner of Best Actor at the SAG Awards, leads with a 40% chance, with Chalamet close behind at 35%.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley with 90% Chance
If there’s one award that’s certain to win at this year’s Oscars, it’s Best Actress. For his intriguing performance in Hamnet, Jessie Buckley is the hot favorite with 90% chances of winning. Rose Byrne is close behind at 5%.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson with 50% chance
It’s quite common for a Best Picture director to win Best Director at the Oscars, and Anderson is a strong contender. According to bookmakers, he remains the favorite, even though Ryan is closing in on Coogler (up 25% and rising). But with just a few days left, it looks like the odds are in favor of Paul Thomas Anderson.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn with 40% chance
This is a category that has changed from a clear favorite to a three-horse race. Sean Penn is still in the lead, but Stellan Skarsgård (25%) and Delroy Lindo (20%) have also increased their chances. Even Jacob Elordi (15%) has an outside chance here.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan with 40% chance
If this happens then Amy Madigan’s win for Weapons would be special, as her film Weapons is not predicted to win any other awards. This is the only reason why bookies are giving him fewer chances than usual, even though the track record is in his favour. Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku (both 25%) are both very hot.
Best Animated Feature: K-Pop Demon Hunters with 70% Chances
Another category where the winner is almost certain is animated features. Despite the success of Zootopia 2, Kpop Demon Hunters remains the hot favorite here as the first choice of almost all major bookmakers. He has a lead of 60 points, indicating an almost certain victory.
Best International Feature: The Secret Agent with a 33% chance
The closest category after Best Actor is Best International Feature, where the two films have almost equal chances. Brazilian film The Secret Agent is just ahead on Norwegian drama sentimental value (30%), and The Voice of Hind Rajab is also in the running. Categories are usually difficult to predict, which can lead to some surprising upsets on awards night.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will take place on March 15, 2026 at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, Los Angeles.